Typhoon Carmen Route Analysis
Track and Movement Characteristics
Typhoon Carmen (196309) 的生命周期始 at Northwest Pacific远洋海域, 整体路径呈现稳定的WNW走 toward , 未发生显著的转 toward 或回旋. formed初期 (8月8日至9日) , 系统在低纬度海域 (约9°N附近) 维持Tropical DepressionIntensity, 并缓慢 toward WMoving. 自8月10日 intensified into Tropical Storm后, 其Moving速度略有提升, 持续 toward NW direction推进. 从经纬度坐标序列分析, 该Typhoon 在穿越Philippines以E洋面时, 纬度从9.1°N逐步攀升至21.9°N, 经度则从145.5°E大幅W移至103°E, 横跨超过40个经度. 值得注意的是, 尽管路径漫长且跨度极大, 但全程无Landfall记录, 始终在海上活动, 最终 at Vietnam以E海域减弱消散. 这种长About 离, 无Landfall的W行路径特征, 表明其受副热带高压S侧引导气流影响显著, 且周围land地形对其结构干扰较小, 直至Go to S海W部近岸区域才因环境改变而迅速衰减.
Intensity evolution and historical comparison
Carmen’s intensity followed a typical rapid intensification, peak maintenance, and gradual weakening cycle. The system intensified explosively from August 10 to 12, with the pressure plunging from 998 hPa to 934 hPa and maximum wind surging to 65 m/s, reaching super typhoon strength. This peak phase lasted only about one day, followed by weakening beginning on August 13. Nevertheless, it fluctuated between severe typhoon and typhoon intensity until August 15, indicating considerable stability in its core structure. After moving into the South China Sea, its intensity declined in stages due to sea surface conditions and vertical wind shear, ultimately ending its life on August 18 as a tropical depression.
Compared with previous typhoons of the same name, Carmen in 1963 displayed exceptional intensity. Its minimum central pressure of 934 hPa was lower than those of Carmen in 1986 (939 hPa), 1978 (965 hPa), and 1974 (974 hPa), and far lower than Carmen in 1983 (992 hPa), which reached only tropical storm intensity. The data show that Carmen in 1963 was the strongest and had the lowest pressure among the same-named typhoons listed, demonstrating an extremely high level of energy release.
Route of Typhoon Carmen
| Time | Position | Intensity | Wind · Pressure | Move toward |
|---|
| 08-08 02:00 | 9.3°N
145.5°E | Tropical Depression | - m/s
1006 hPa | - |
| 08-08 14:00 | 8.9°N
143.6°E | Tropical Depression | 15 m/s
1003 hPa | W |
| 08-09 02:00 | 8.9°N
141.7°E | Tropical Depression | 15 m/s
1003 hPa | W |
| 08-09 14:00 | 9.1°N
139.7°E | Tropical Depression | 15 m/s
1003 hPa | W |
| 08-10 02:00 | 9.1°N
137.4°E | Tropical Depression | 15 m/s
1000 hPa | W |
| 08-10 14:00 | 9.1°N
135.2°E | Severe Tropical Storm | 25 m/s
992 hPa | W |
| 08-11 02:00 | 9.5°N
133.1°E | Typhoon | 40 m/s
983 hPa | WNW |
| 08-11 14:00 | 10.2°N
131.3°E | Typhoon | 40 m/s
980 hPa | WNW |
| 08-12 02:00 | 11.2°N
129°E | Severe Typhoon | 50 m/s
965 hPa | WNW |
| 08-12 14:00 | 12.1°N
126.7°E | Super Typhoon | 65 m/s
934 hPa | WNW |
| 08-13 02:00 | 12.9°N
125.2°E | Super Typhoon | 65 m/s
939 hPa | WNW |
| 08-13 14:00 | 14.2°N
124°E | Severe Typhoon | 50 m/s
955 hPa | NW |
| 08-14 02:00 | 15.8°N
122.2°E | Typhoon | 40 m/s
977 hPa | NW |
| 08-14 14:00 | 16.7°N
119.8°E | Typhoon | 35 m/s
991 hPa | WNW |
| 08-15 02:00 | 17.9°N
117.4°E | Typhoon | 40 m/s
983 hPa | WNW |
| 08-15 14:00 | 18.3°N
115.2°E | Severe Typhoon | 45 m/s
970 hPa | W |
| 08-16 02:00 | 18.8°N
112.5°E | Severe Typhoon | 45 m/s
970 hPa | WNW |
| 08-16 14:00 | 20°N
110.8°E | Typhoon | 40 m/s
970 hPa | NW |
| 08-17 02:00 | 20.8°N
108.7°E | Severe Tropical Storm | 30 m/s
978 hPa | WNW |
| 08-17 14:00 | 21.2°N
106.5°E | Severe Tropical Storm | 25 m/s
990 hPa | WNW |
| 08-18 02:00 | 21.5°N
104.5°E | Tropical Depression | 15 m/s
996 hPa | WNW |
| 08-18 08:00 | 21.9°N
103°E | Tropical Depression | 9 m/s
998 hPa | WNW |
Sampled rows shown; all 42 track points are available on the interactive map or via the public API .
FAQ
Typhoon Carmen is the 1963 Typhoon.
CMA continues to use 196309 as the historical numbering for Typhoon Carmen (the ninth typhoon of 1963), while its international name was CARMEN. The international numbering system for the Northwest Pacific did not begin until 1981; before then, agencies used their own numbering systems. The numbers assigned by JMA (Japan), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in the USA, and China’s meteorological authorities to the same typhoon may differ and cannot be directly compared.
Where does the track data for Typhoon Carmen come from?
Track data sources: China Meteorological Administration Tropical Cyclone Best Track Dataset (CMA-STI); wind speeds are 2-minute sustained wind speeds.
What is the highest level of Typhoon Carmen?
Typhoon Carmen peak intensity is Super Typhoon, max wind 65m/s, minimum central pressure 934 hPa.
Typhoon Carmen Landfall.
According to records, Typhoon Carmen is not in our coastal landfall.
Where can I view typhoon Carmen's live track map?
TyphoonSays (taifengshuo.com) provides typhoon Carmen's Track history map, multinational meteorological agency Forecast comparison, windshield range with IntensityTrend, page address: https://taifengshuo.com/typhoon/196309.
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