Typhoon Carmen Route Analysis
Track and Turning Characteristics
Typhoon Carmen (198619) 的生命史始 at Northwest Pacific远洋海域, 整体路径呈现典型的“抛物线”型Moving特征. formed初期 (10月1日至3日) , 系统位 at 低纬度洋面 (10°N-15°N) , 受副热带高压S侧引导气流影响, 稳定 toward NW. 随着纬度升高, 系统 at 10月4日至5日期间在16°N至19°N附近维持WNW路径, 此时经度从143.3°E快速W移至140.2°E, Moving速度较快.
The key recurvature occurred from October 6 to 7. At 08:00 on October 6, the center was located at 20.3°N, 138.1°E, after which its northward movement increased significantly. By 20:00 on October 7, the center had moved to 28.6°N, 141.2°E, marking the completion of its recurvature from a northwestward track to a northeastward track. The typhoon then accelerated northeastward, crossing the mid-latitude westerlies before weakening and dissipating near 47°N, 168°E on October 10. Throughout its entire lifespan, it did not make landfall and remained at sea.
Intensity evolution and historical comparison
Carmen's intensity evolution went through three stages: rapid intensification, a peak plateau, and gradual weakening. Initially, it was a tropical depression with a central pressure of 1004hPa. From October 3, it intensified rapidly, developing from a tropical storm into a severe typhoon in only about 3 days. Its peak lasted from 20:00 on October 5 to 08:00 on October 6, when the minimum central pressure fell to 939hPa and the maximum wind reached 50m/s, making it a severe typhoon. Notably, after 08:00 on October 6, although it continued moving north, its pressure rose slightly to 947hPa and its wind speed fell to 40m/s, indicating that its intensity began fluctuating and declining during recurvature. After moving to higher latitudes, north of 33°N, the system continued to weaken under the effects of cold seawater and vertical wind shear, ultimately becoming a tropical storm and a precursor to an extratropical cyclone.
Compared with previous typhoons of the same name, Carmen in 1986 was significantly stronger. Its peak pressure of 939hPa was much lower than the values recorded in 1978 (965hPa), 1974 (974hPa), and 1983 (992hPa). Carmen in 1983 and 1971 reached only tropical storm or severe tropical storm intensity, while Carmen in 1986 met severe typhoon criteria and maintained high intensity for longer. It was the strongest same-named typhoon in more than a decade.
Route of Typhoon Carmen
| Time | Position | Intensity | Wind · Pressure | Move toward |
|---|
| 10-01 20:00 | 10°N
155°E | Tropical Depression | 15 m/s
1004 hPa | - |
| 10-02 08:00 | 10.9°N
153°E | Tropical Depression | 15 m/s
1002 hPa | NW |
| 10-02 20:00 | 12°N
150.7°E | Tropical Depression | 15 m/s
1000 hPa | WNW |
| 10-03 08:00 | 13.3°N
148.1°E | Tropical Storm | 20 m/s
995 hPa | WNW |
| 10-03 20:00 | 15°N
145.6°E | Severe Tropical Storm | 25 m/s
990 hPa | WNW |
| 10-04 08:00 | 15.6°N
143.3°E | Severe Tropical Storm | 30 m/s
988 hPa | WNW |
| 10-04 20:00 | 16.9°N
141.8°E | Typhoon | 35 m/s
980 hPa | NW |
| 10-05 08:00 | 18°N
140.2°E | Typhoon | 40 m/s
968 hPa | WNW |
| 10-05 20:00 | 19.1°N
139°E | Severe Typhoon | 45 m/s
944 hPa | NW |
| 10-06 08:00 | 20.3°N
138.1°E | Severe Typhoon | 50 m/s
947 hPa | NNW |
| 10-06 20:00 | 22.4°N
137.7°E | Typhoon | 40 m/s
960 hPa | N |
| 10-07 08:00 | 24.8°N
138.7°E | Typhoon | 35 m/s
963 hPa | NNE |
| 10-07 20:00 | 28.6°N
141.2°E | Typhoon | 35 m/s
960 hPa | NNE |
| 10-08 08:00 | 33.4°N
142.7°E | Typhoon | 35 m/s
956 hPa | NNE |
| 10-08 20:00 | 37.8°N
146.6°E | Severe Tropical Storm | 30 m/s
960 hPa | NE |
| 10-09 08:00 | 41.5°N
151.5°E | Severe Tropical Storm | 30 m/s
970 hPa | ENE |
| 10-09 20:00 | 45°N
157°E | Tropical Storm | 20 m/s
985 hPa | NE |
| 10-10 08:00 | 47°N
168°E | Tropical Storm | 20 m/s
995 hPa | ENE |
Sampled rows shown; all 35 track points are available on the interactive map or via the public API .
FAQ
Typhoon Carmen was the second typhoon in 1986.
Typhoon Carmen's international code is 198619, is the 19th Typhoon of 1986, international name CARMEN.
Where does the track data for Typhoon Carmen come from?
Track data sources: China Meteorological Administration Tropical Cyclone Best Track Dataset (CMA-STI); wind speeds are 2-minute sustained wind speeds.
What is the highest level of Typhoon Carmen?
Typhoon Carmen peak intensity is Severe Typhoon, max wind 50m/s, minimum central pressure 939 hPa.
Typhoon Carmen Landfall.
According to records, Typhoon Carmen is not in our coastal landfall.
Where can I view typhoon Carmen's live track map?
TyphoonSays (taifengshuo.com) provides typhoon Carmen's Track history map, multinational meteorological agency Forecast comparison, windshield range with IntensityTrend, page address: https://taifengshuo.com/typhoon/198619.
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